Energy Crises and Economic Crisis: A Long-Period Perspective

Résumé

Twenty years later, the question of the impact of the oil shock on the economy remains controversial. Mainstream economic analysis, carried out in sectoral studies or formal macroeconomic models, most often leads to the conclusion that the impacts were very substantial in terms of a slowing down in growth or productivity gains. But in a larger perspective, drawing upon analysis of the world economy over the long term, the judgement is qualified. In short, it appears that a "long-wave" analysis, inspired by the work of neo-Schumpeterian economists, allows one to see more clearly how the world economy and the international energy system fit together within a dynamic framework. Within this perspective one can approach the question of whether there will be additional oil shocks in the future.