THREE INVESTMENT SCENARIOS FOR FUTURE NUCLEAR REACTORS IN EUROPE
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.15173/esr.v23i1.3312Mots-clés :
Power System Economics, Electricity Investments, Nuclear EnergiesRésumé
While nuclear power may experience a technological breakthrough in Europe with Generation IV nuclear reactors within a few decades (2040), several events and drivers could question this possibility, e.g. the Fukushima accident, climate issues and liberalization of the electricity market.
This article analyzes how the conditions necessary for their industrial development from now up to 2040 can be either favorable or detrimental to future nuclear reactors compared with other technologies and according to four main investment drivers: 1) technical change, 2) policy, 3) market, and 4) power company drivers.
Twenty-four scenarios have been identified through structural analysis, with only three proving to be favorable to the development of future nuclear reactors.
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Schenk, N.J. and Moll, H.C. [2007] 'The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios,' Ecological Economics 63:2–3: p.521–535.
Venkataraman, S. [1997] 'The Distinctive Domain of Entrepreneurship Research,' Advances in entrepreneurship, firm emergence and growth 3: p.119–138.
Wang, G., Wang, Y. and Zhao, T. [2008] 'Analysis of interactions among the barriers to energy saving in China,' Energy Policy 36:6: p.1879–1889.
Weisbrod, B.A. [1964] 'Collective-Consumption Services of Individual-Consumption Goods,' The Quarterly Journal of Economics 78:3: p.471–477.
Alvarez, S.A. and Barney, J.B. [2007] 'Discovery and creation: alternative theories of entrepreneurial action,' Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal 1:1-2: p.11–26.
Arrow, K.J. [1965] Aspects of the theory of risk-bearing, Yrjö Jahnssonin Säätiö.
Baumol, W.J. [1977] 'On the Proper Cost Tests for Natural Monopoly in a Multiproduct Industry,' American Economic Review 67:5: p.809–22.
Bergman, J., Viljainen, S., Kässi, T., Partanen, J. and Laaksonen, P. [2006] 'Managing the exploration of new operational and strategic activities using the scenario method—assessing future capabilities in the field of electricity distribution industry,' International Journal of Production Economics 104:1: p.46–61.
Bibas, R. [2011] 'Dynamiques d’investissement et de maîtrise de la courbe de charge dans le système électrique français,' Available at: http://www.modelisation-prospective.org/journee_chaire_2011.html [Accessed October 2, 2013].
Bland, J. and Westlake, S. [2013] Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow, NESTA. Available at: http://www.nesta.org.uk/library/documents/dont_stop.pdf [Accessed September 18, 2013].
Boiteux, M. [1956] 'Sur la gestion des monopoles publics astreints à l’équilibre budgétaire,' Econometrica.
Bordier, C. [2008] 'Développement des énergies renouvelables: quelle contribution du marché du carbone?,' CdC Climat Recherche, Point Climat :16. Available at: http://www.caissedesdepots.fr/fileadmin/PDF/finance_carbone/etudes_climat/note16_energies_renouvelables.pdf [Accessed October 2, 2013].
Chabaud, D. and Messeghem, K. [2010] 'Le paradigme de l’opportunité. Des fondements à la refondation,' Revue française de gestion 36:206: p.93–112.
Chick, M.C. [2007] Electricity and Energy Policy in Britain, France and the United States Since 1945, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Coates, J., Durance, P. and Godet, M. [2010] 'Strategic Foresight Issue: Introduction,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77:9: p.1423–1425.
Da Costa, P., Zagamé, P., Le Mouel, P., Garbi, O. and Pratlong, F. [2009] Macroeconomic assessment for the EU ‘Climate Action and Renewable Energy Package’, Foresight and ASSessment for Environmental Technologies Integrated Project. Available at: http://www.webmeets.com/files/papers/EAERE/2009/917/eaere.pdf [Accessed October 2, 2013].
Department of Energy & Climate Change and Prime Minister’s Office [2013] 'Initial agreement reached on new nuclear power station at Hinkley - Press releases - GOV.UK,' Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/initial-agreement-reached-on-new-nuclear-power-station-at-hinkley [Accessed November 6, 2013].
Durance, P. and Godet, M. [2010] 'Scenario building: Uses and abuses,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77:9: p.1488–1492.
EDF, E.On, RWE, EnWB, Vattenfall, Enel, Eni, Endesa, Gas Natural Fenosa, EDP, Iberdrola, SSE and Centrica [2012] Annual report, Available at: Companies’ websites.
Friedman, M. and Savage, L.J. [1948] 'The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk,' Journal of Political Economy 56. Available at: http://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v56y1948p279.html [Accessed July 12, 2013].
Godet, M. [2001] Creating futures: scenario planning as a strategic management tool, Économica.
Godet, M. [2010] 'Future memories,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77:9: p.1457–1463.
Godet, M. [2008] Manuel de prospective stratégique Tome 2, Paris: Dunod.
Godet, M. [2000] 'The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65:1: p.3–22.
Godet, M. [2002] 'Unconventional wisdom for the future,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69:6: p.559–563.
Godet, M. and Roubelat, F. [2000] 'Scenario Planning: An Open Future,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65:1: p.1–2.
Gonod, P. [2006] Contribution de Pierre Gonod aux concepts clés de la prospective, Collège Européen de la Prospective Territoriale. Available at: http://www.foresight-college.eu/IMG/pdf/PFG_contributions_total_p_copie.pdf [Accessed October 2, 2013].
Gonod, P.F. and Gurtler, J.-L. [2002] 'Evolution de la prospective,' Oléagineux, Corps Gras, Lipides 9:5: p.317–28.
Grand, E. and Veyrenc, T. [2011] L’Europe de l’électricité et du gaz Econometrica.,
Hansen, J.-P., Percebois, J., Boiteux, M. and Tirole, J. [2010] Energie économie et politiques, Bruxelles: De Boeck.
Henry, C. [1974] 'Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The ‘Irreversibility Effect.’,' American Economic Review 64:6: p.1006–12.
Hicks, J.R. [1939] 'The Foundations of Welfare Economics,' The Economic Journal 49:196: p.696.
Hines, A. and Bishop, P.J. [2006] Thinking about the future: guidelines for strategic foresight, Washington, DC: Social Technologies.
Hughes, N. and Strachan, N. [2010] 'Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios,' Energy Policy 38:10: p.6056–6065.
Hughes, N., Strachan, N. and Gross, R. [2013] 'The structure of uncertainty in future low carbon pathways,' Energy Policy 52: p.45–54.
IAEA [2009] Issues to Improve the Prospects of Financing Nuclear Power Plants, Available at: http://www-pub.iaea.org/books/IAEABooks/8183/Issues-to-Improve-the-Prospects-of-Financing-Nuclear-Power-Plants [Accessed October 2, 2013].
IEA [2012] WEO, Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/#d.en.26099 [Accessed October 2, 2013].
Joskow, P.L. and Parsons, J.E. [2012] The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima, MIT CEEPR. Available at: http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/70857 [Accessed October 2, 2013].
Markard, J., Stadelmann, M. and Truffer, B. [2009] 'Prospective analysis of technological innovation systems: Identifying technological and organizational development options for biogas in Switzerland,' Research Policy 38:4: p.655–667.
Massé, P. [1953] 'Les investissements électriques,' Revue de Statistique Appliquée 1: p.119–129.
Ministère du Développement durable [2013] 'Les réacteurs nucléaires de génération 4,' Available at: http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/Les-reacteurs-nucleaires-de.html [Accessed October 3, 2013].
Neumann, J.V. and Morgenstern, O. [1944] Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press.
OECD [2009] The Financing of Nuclear Power Plants, Available at: http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/reports/2009/financing-plants.pdf [Accessed October 2, 2013].
OECD and IAEA [2012] Uranium 2011: Resources, Production, Demand, Available at: http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/display.asp?LANG=EN&SF1=DI&ST1=5K9778108FR8 [Accessed October 2, 2013].
OECD and Nuclear Energy Agency [2012] Nuclear Energy and Renewables, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/book/9789264188617-en [Accessed July 31, 2013].
Pigou, A.C. [1924] The Economics of Welfare, Transaction Publishers.
Rogner, H.-H. and Langlois, L. [2001] 'The Economic Future of Nuclear Power in Competitive Markets,' Energy Studies Review 10:1. Available at: http://digitalcommons.mcmaster.ca/esr/vol10/iss1/3.
Samuelson, P.A. [1943] Foundations of economic analysis, Harvard University Press.
Schenk, N.J. and Moll, H.C. [2007] 'The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios,' Ecological Economics 63:2–3: p.521–535.
Venkataraman, S. [1997] 'The Distinctive Domain of Entrepreneurship Research,' Advances in entrepreneurship, firm emergence and growth 3: p.119–138.
Wang, G., Wang, Y. and Zhao, T. [2008] 'Analysis of interactions among the barriers to energy saving in China,' Energy Policy 36:6: p.1879–1889.
Weisbrod, B.A. [1964] 'Collective-Consumption Services of Individual-Consumption Goods,' The Quarterly Journal of Economics 78:3: p.471–477.
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