La précision de la prévision de la demande d'électricité par Hydro-Québec: une approche comparative
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.15173/esr.v8i2.388Résumé
La prévision de la demande d'électricité par Hydro-Québec constitue le sujet de nombreux débats publics. Qu'en est-il au juste de sa performance dans ce domaine? Dans cet article, nous passons en revue ses prévisions de 1980 à 1995 et nous compamns sa performance à celle d'Ontario Hydro, de BC Hydro, de New England Power Pool et de New York Power Pool. Il ressort que les prévisions d'Hydro-Québec ont été fortement influencées par l'évolution récente de la demande qui est elle-même dépendante de l'évolution économique et que les changements de la situation économique générale constitue la principale source d'erreur de prévision. Les grands services d'électricité disposent de ressources comparables dans la confection de leur prévision et en viennent à partager une vision commune de l'évolution de leur marché. La performance d'Hydro-Québec s'apparente donc à celle des autres grands services d'électricité au cours de la période étudiée.
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